Polarimetric Radar Characteristics of Tornadogenesis Failure in Supercell Thunderstorms

Many nontornadic supercell storms have times when they appear to be moving toward tornadogenesis, including the development of a strong low-level vortex, but never end up producing tornado. These tornadogenesis failure (TGF) episodes can substantial challenge operational meteorologists. In this study, sample 32 pre-tornadic and 36 pre-TGF supercells is examined in 30 min pre-tornadogenesis or period explore feasibility using polarimetric radar metrics highlight with larger potential near-term. Overall results indicate few distinguishers storms. Differential reflectivity (ZDR) arc size intensity were most promising examined, ZDR potentially exhibiting large enough differences between two storm subsets operationally useful. Change leading TGF did not exhibit differences, though findings consistent hypotheses based on prior literature.